基于免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究

研究目的:科学识别黑龙江省耕地系统安全警情现状及其未来发展趋势。研究方法:改进突变级数模型和Elman神经网络模型。研究结果:(1)构建基于生物免疫机理的耕地系统安全警情评定指标体系,得出黑龙江省警情1995—2014年整体呈波动上升趋势,警度从"无警"上升至"轻警",再至"中警",说明基于改进突变级数模型的评价结果可凸显评价对象之"优、劣"特征;(2)引入Elman神经网络构建耕地系统安全警情预测模型,测试拟合精度在0.97以上,预测结果可靠,表明未来20年黑龙江省警情将整体呈先升高、后降低趋势,警度在"轻警"与"中警"之间。研究结论:基于生物免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究,可为省域尺度下耕地系统安全预警提供一种新的思路。     

A strategic planning model for the railway system accident rescue problem

The present study examines the location of emergency rescue problems for urban ambulance and railway emergency systems. The proposed model considers probabilistic rescue demand, independent busy fractions of ambulances, and the corresponding risk levels in railway segments. We formulate the proposed model using fuzzy multi-objective programming and solve it using a generic algorithm and a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. Computation results are analyzed by applying the model to a real-world Taiwan railway system. Analytical results demonstrate that a proper adjustment of the rescue resource location improves rescue effectiveness for railway rescue and urban medical service demand.     

Risk Behaviours and Grazing Land Management: A Framed Field Experiment and Linkages to Range Land Condition

We use a framed field experiment considering hypothetical stocking rate decisions made by grazing enterprise managers and estimate non‐linear multinomial logit models for a range of nested non‐expected utility and expected utility models. The risk and decision‐bias parameters for five models estimated for individual responses are shown to be significantly related to land condition but in ways which suggest behavioural aspects of decision making are critical in understanding land management and stocking rate decisions. Our results show that individual heterogeneity in decision making amongst farming groups is likely to be a significant source of variation in farming intensity and technology adoption decisions. This heterogeneity does not appear to be a reflection of socio‐demographic characteristics. Furthermore, decision functions appear to be biased toward selection of simpler representative functions (e.g. Expected Utility) for sample averages. This suggests that experimental findings that Expected Utility is representative for actual decisions may be due to sample averaging rather than reflect actual behaviour.     

Kuhn’s Theorem for extensive form Ellsberg games

We propose the notions of mixed and behavioral Ellsberg strategies for extensive form games and prove that these strategies are outcome-equivalent if and only if mixed Ellsberg strategies satisfy a certain rectangularity condition. In addition, we show that not only the profile of Ellsberg strategies must be appropriately chosen but also the extensive form must satisfy further restrictions beyond those implied by perfect recall in order to ensure that each player will respect his ex ante strategy choice with the evolution of play.     

基于责任定位法的工业用地集约利用绩效评价 ——以江苏省盐城市为例

研究目的:通过编制盐都区工业用地绩效编码,分析绩效编码的含义对工业用地集约利用现状的解释能力,验证责任定位法是一个科学实用的绩效评价方法。研究方法:归纳分析法和实证检验法。研究结果:(1)责任定位法中每个指标代码能够真实反应相应评价指标的绩效等级,不涉及权重和综合得分问题,克服了综合评分法评价结果可比性低的特点。(2)绩效编码能够客观直观地衡量工业用地的集约利用效果,其含义与原始数据所反映的用地绩效情况相符。研究结论:(1)责任定位法具有科学性,绩效编码没有歪曲、偏离宗地绩效的实际情况。(2)责任定位法给出的宗地绩效信息具有实际使用价值,可以反应宗地绩效高低的直接原因,指导企业和管理部门采取相应措施提升用地绩效或清退低效用地。     

基于目标值的土地警素指标的预警研究 ——以上海市土地类指标为例

研究目的:探寻基于目标值的土地运行关键指标预警研究的方法,及时提出警戒信息与调控措施。研究方法:采用趋势预测法对警素指标的未来值进行预测,用年均增长率函数倒推法确定目标值倒推值,结合预测值与目标值倒推值确定2015—2020年弹性警界线,采用统计误差理论所得出3σ法则来确定警度界限的区间,采用景气信号灯法判别警情,黄色信号灯表示轻警、红色信号灯重警,采用情景分析法分析不同减量化目标下警情的变化趋势。研究结果:上海市建设用地总规模若按减量递增10%,则2018年后需要保持零增长,若减量递增30%,则增量还有一定上行空间;工业用地占比的预测值在未来5年内都处于红色预警,但警情有较为合理的自下降趋势。研究结论:建设用地应遵循"五量并举"的调控思路,努力实现规划建设用地"负增长"目标;而工业用地则通过加强分类引导,采取二次开发、复合利用等措施,优化用地结构,使工业用地占比回落到正常区间。单一警素指标预警适用于时间序列较长且有目标值的指标,未来的研究重点应在单项预警的基础上,构建以土地要素为核心的多要素安全综合预警体系。     

区域产业发展视角的农业综合开发影响评估——基于对蔬菜产业的干预效应分析

【目的】通过定量方法准确评估农业综合开发对区域优势产业发展的影响有重要意义。【方法】从农业综合开发对蔬菜产业的项目干预效应入手,以县级为单位,将当年农业综合开发项目扶持内容包括蔬菜产业的县级单位划分为干预组,其他为控制组。采用可以有效解决样品选择偏差的倾向得分匹配方法,通过引入协变量、平衡检验、匹配等步骤,在控制组中找到与干预组成员单位特征相似的成员,构建反事实研究框架。【结果】结果得出,项目干预组比控制组区域的蔬菜播种面积占比高出1~3个百分点,说明农业综合开发项目对蔬菜产业的扶持对蔬菜播种面积的扩大有促进作用,利于蔬菜产业壮大。通过协变量影响力分析得出,地区的蔬菜生产优势是最重要的影响因素,从侧面证明了农业综合开发项目的扶持方向紧跟区域优势的政策宗旨。【结论】可见,通过有方向性的农业综合开发项目实施扶持特定产业对促进区域优势产业发展和实现农业结构优化是有效的。     

国际碳基金经营风险管理的经验与启示

当前，国际碳基金运营体系日趋成熟。本文总结了国际碳基金在治理运营模式、风险评价、风险控制与项目退出四个方面的运营经验；并结合实际，提出了中国进一步发展碳基金的建议。     

Grading Innovation in an International Marketing Course: Promoting Student Collaboration and Individual Accountability

In this article, the author proposes an innovative, exam-based homework grading method to facilitate both collaboration among students and individual accountability while learning a complex theory and applying it to solve a problem. Results from this novel approach to grading a comparative advantage theory homework assignment, using an objective exam performance measure to adjust original homework grades, show that students increase their comprehension of the frequently misunderstood theory. This novel grading method can be applied in a variety of contexts to promote student collaboration in preparation of academic work while providing incentives to encourage individual accountability and engagement.     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统"防火墙"。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。